Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
